Very good analyses! I think kaspi is propably the best business in the world. I own a Lot! Two reasons why i dont have even more: the screwed coup showed that is there is some political risk and the TAM is Limited even included the other "Stans".
Thank you, Thomas! Appreciate the feedback! While it's very reasonable to have concerns about Kazakhstan's political stability, it has arguably improved since the 2022 protests due to government reforms, economic policies targeting inequality, and enhanced security measures. But definitely something to keep an eye on! Regarding the TAM, there is some interesting data/forecasts in the recent S-1 Draft previously not shown. While they show a long runway (especially in Markeplace segment, perhaps less so in the Payments segment), they also ackoneledge that the goal is to serve 100m customers and that they continously review expansion opportunities across the other "Stans" but also Central and Eastern Europe. It's a shame their planned expansion into Ukraine will likely not come to fruition given the situation. However, I can imagine an expansion across Romania, Balkans, and later perhaps also broader CEE, which would be a game changer - having said that, something that is unreasonable to underwrite at this point given pending proof-points of successful geo expansion at scale.
Very good analyses! I think kaspi is propably the best business in the world. I own a Lot! Two reasons why i dont have even more: the screwed coup showed that is there is some political risk and the TAM is Limited even included the other "Stans".
Thank you, Thomas! Appreciate the feedback! While it's very reasonable to have concerns about Kazakhstan's political stability, it has arguably improved since the 2022 protests due to government reforms, economic policies targeting inequality, and enhanced security measures. But definitely something to keep an eye on! Regarding the TAM, there is some interesting data/forecasts in the recent S-1 Draft previously not shown. While they show a long runway (especially in Markeplace segment, perhaps less so in the Payments segment), they also ackoneledge that the goal is to serve 100m customers and that they continously review expansion opportunities across the other "Stans" but also Central and Eastern Europe. It's a shame their planned expansion into Ukraine will likely not come to fruition given the situation. However, I can imagine an expansion across Romania, Balkans, and later perhaps also broader CEE, which would be a game changer - having said that, something that is unreasonable to underwrite at this point given pending proof-points of successful geo expansion at scale.